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英伟达业绩持续向好,但也有一大利空

因原定交付给中国客户的芯片最终无法交付,公司为此计提了45亿美元的资产减值。

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英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋。图片来源:Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

英伟达上周公布的季度财报成绩亮眼,但其中也暗藏一则重大利空消息:因原定交付给中国客户的芯片最终无法交付,公司为此计提了45亿美元的资产减值。

为遵循拜登政府关于禁止向“外国对手”出口可能助力其人工智能发展的技术的规定,英伟达开发了所谓的H20芯片——此类芯片性能较其顶级半导体产品有所逊色。然而,今年4月初,特朗普政府再度加码,甚至禁止出口性能稍次的芯片。

英伟达(Nvidia)首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)在5月28日的财报电话会议上表示:“我们正对无法出售或重新利用的库存计提数十亿美元减值。”

关于将芯片价值减记至零(而非出售给其他客户)的决策细节,公司并未作出解释,仅补充称正在“探索有限选项”来处置未使用的库存,不过并未详细说明——显然这些举措并不包括直接销售芯片。

根据旧出口规则,H20芯片是专为中国市场打造的。鉴于其芯片设计和功能存在局限性,可能难以在其他国家投入使用。罗格斯商学院(Rutgers Business School)供应链管理教授阿拉什·阿扎德甘(Arash Azadegan)表示:“若不投入大量资金进行调试,这些芯片确实无法在其他任何地方适用。”

此类调试可能让英伟达承担额外成本。此外,田纳西大学(University of Tennessee)供应链教授查德·奥特里(Chad Autry)指出,部分芯片可能“无法满足其他地区客户的性能需求”,或在设计层面“专门针对中国客户的要求或需求”。

即使英伟达能通过降价方式出售这些芯片,也可能损害其作为顶级创新产品供应商的形象。毕竟,该公司新推出的Blackwell图形处理器(GPU)为OpenAI尚未发布的GPT-5模型等前沿人工智能技术提供算力支持。阿扎德甘提到,Blackwell系列被用于亚马逊AWS、微软Azure、谷歌云及甲骨文等公司的新产品,“英伟达可能不希望折扣芯片充斥市场——这可能会扰乱其定价策略,让客户感到困惑,还会分散其大力推广新一代Blackwell产品线的精力。”

除高管在上周财报电话会议上的发言外,英伟达拒绝置评。

据路透社2月报道,在中国深度求索(DeepSeek)于1月推出ChatGPT竞品后,阿里巴巴、字节跳动和腾讯等中国主要企业便采购了英伟达的H20芯片。这些公司很可能已借助H20芯片开发出强大的人工智能能力,因此几乎没有理由认为,倘若英伟达将H20芯片售予美国公司,它们会无法做到这一点。

然而,韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)负责英伟达业务的执行董事马修·布赖森(Matthew Bryson)表示,英伟达和美国本土客户或许对此毫无兴趣。“这些产品之所以销往中国,是因为人们总会倾向于选择更优的选项,”布赖森解释称,若非出于有意设计以阻止中国企业构建与美国先进人工智能应用相仿的模型,H20的基础技术“根本就不会被开发出来”。他还称,若英伟达按美国市场价值大幅折价出售这些芯片,可能会“侵蚀”更优质产品的销量。

首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯(Colette Kress)在上周的财报电话会议上表示,英伟达最初预计需从资产负债表中减记55亿美元的芯片库存,不过通过“对部分材料进行重新利用”,成功挽回了约10亿美元的H20库存,使第一季度实际减记额降至45亿美元。

不出所料,她指出,受特朗普政府新出台的出口规定影响,英伟达今年上半年的营收将因特朗普的对华禁令而受到冲击。该公司第一季度营收亏损25亿美元,预计第二季度营收亏损将大幅攀升至80亿美元。

问题在于这些库存的H20芯片会如何处置。《财富》杂志采访的供应链专家怀疑它们会被丢弃。田纳西大学哈斯拉姆商学院供应链教授艾伦·阿姆林(Alan Amling)在给《财富》杂志的电子邮件中写道:“这些芯片最终会如同你从姨妈那里得到的‘酷炫熔岩灯’一样,被扔进某个垃圾填埋场。鉴于存在如此多其他增长机遇,重新利用、重新测试和重新认证这些芯片的机会成本显然过高。”

田纳西大学的奥特里表示,因特朗普政府出口新规生效速度极快,这些无法交付的H20芯片或许目前正存放在中国台湾和中国香港等对美友好地区。总部位于中国台湾的台积电(TSMC)为英伟达生产了大量面向中国客户的芯片库存,而英伟达的物流履约合作伙伴也位于周边国家。

对H20芯片进行减值冲销,对英伟达本就蒸蒸日上的业务而言,短期影响几乎可以忽略不计。该公司第一季度营收高达441亿美元(同比增长69%),净利润达188亿美元,净利润率保持在健康的42.6%。

将芯片全额减值,通过减少应纳税所得额,为公司带来了直接的税收优惠。根据英伟达未来的销售前景和成本情况,这种税收优惠可能超过或接近大幅折价出售芯片所带来的财务收益。

罗格斯大学的阿扎德甘表示:“英伟达会安然无恙,英伟达的投资者也无需担忧。”他指出,“真正的问题”在于,像台积电这样的制造合作伙伴以及包括三星(Samsung)和美光(Micron)在内的供应商,可能受H20库存减值冲击最大,因为它们通过在英伟达供应链中承担关键职能来开展业务。阿扎德甘指出,这些合作伙伴受影响的程度将在未来数月甚至数年里逐渐明晰。“转型绝非一朝一夕之事。”

派杰证券(Piper Sandler)英伟达分析师哈什·库马尔(Harsh Kumar)希望特朗普最终能解除对H20芯片对华出口的封锁。若真如此,假设英伟达仍保留着H20库存,就能最终完成H20的销售,或将芯片交付给中国的新客户。在特朗普政府就法官对其“解放日”关税实施的禁令提出上诉后,这种情况成为现实的可能性目前尚不明晰。

尽管如此,特朗普新出台的出口禁令以国家安全为由,阻止英伟达向中国交付芯片,因此这一举措与他的关税议程或许几乎毫无关联。库马尔向《财富》杂志表示:“在我看来,这几乎表明黄仁勋和英伟达找到了将这批H20芯片重新销往中国的途径。”这或许能助力这家股价本就高企的公司未来再攀新高。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

英伟达上周公布的季度财报成绩亮眼,但其中也暗藏一则重大利空消息:因原定交付给中国客户的芯片最终无法交付,公司为此计提了45亿美元的资产减值。

为遵循拜登政府关于禁止向“外国对手”出口可能助力其人工智能发展的技术的规定,英伟达开发了所谓的H20芯片——此类芯片性能较其顶级半导体产品有所逊色。然而,今年4月初,特朗普政府再度加码,甚至禁止出口性能稍次的芯片。

英伟达(Nvidia)首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)在5月28日的财报电话会议上表示:“我们正对无法出售或重新利用的库存计提数十亿美元减值。”

关于将芯片价值减记至零(而非出售给其他客户)的决策细节,公司并未作出解释,仅补充称正在“探索有限选项”来处置未使用的库存,不过并未详细说明——显然这些举措并不包括直接销售芯片。

根据旧出口规则,H20芯片是专为中国市场打造的。鉴于其芯片设计和功能存在局限性,可能难以在其他国家投入使用。罗格斯商学院(Rutgers Business School)供应链管理教授阿拉什·阿扎德甘(Arash Azadegan)表示:“若不投入大量资金进行调试,这些芯片确实无法在其他任何地方适用。”

此类调试可能让英伟达承担额外成本。此外,田纳西大学(University of Tennessee)供应链教授查德·奥特里(Chad Autry)指出,部分芯片可能“无法满足其他地区客户的性能需求”,或在设计层面“专门针对中国客户的要求或需求”。

即使英伟达能通过降价方式出售这些芯片,也可能损害其作为顶级创新产品供应商的形象。毕竟,该公司新推出的Blackwell图形处理器(GPU)为OpenAI尚未发布的GPT-5模型等前沿人工智能技术提供算力支持。阿扎德甘提到,Blackwell系列被用于亚马逊AWS、微软Azure、谷歌云及甲骨文等公司的新产品,“英伟达可能不希望折扣芯片充斥市场——这可能会扰乱其定价策略,让客户感到困惑,还会分散其大力推广新一代Blackwell产品线的精力。”

除高管在上周财报电话会议上的发言外,英伟达拒绝置评。

据路透社2月报道,在中国深度求索(DeepSeek)于1月推出ChatGPT竞品后,阿里巴巴、字节跳动和腾讯等中国主要企业便采购了英伟达的H20芯片。这些公司很可能已借助H20芯片开发出强大的人工智能能力,因此几乎没有理由认为,倘若英伟达将H20芯片售予美国公司,它们会无法做到这一点。

然而,韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)负责英伟达业务的执行董事马修·布赖森(Matthew Bryson)表示,英伟达和美国本土客户或许对此毫无兴趣。“这些产品之所以销往中国,是因为人们总会倾向于选择更优的选项,”布赖森解释称,若非出于有意设计以阻止中国企业构建与美国先进人工智能应用相仿的模型,H20的基础技术“根本就不会被开发出来”。他还称,若英伟达按美国市场价值大幅折价出售这些芯片,可能会“侵蚀”更优质产品的销量。

首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯(Colette Kress)在上周的财报电话会议上表示,英伟达最初预计需从资产负债表中减记55亿美元的芯片库存,不过通过“对部分材料进行重新利用”,成功挽回了约10亿美元的H20库存,使第一季度实际减记额降至45亿美元。

不出所料,她指出,受特朗普政府新出台的出口规定影响,英伟达今年上半年的营收将因特朗普的对华禁令而受到冲击。该公司第一季度营收亏损25亿美元,预计第二季度营收亏损将大幅攀升至80亿美元。

问题在于这些库存的H20芯片会如何处置。《财富》杂志采访的供应链专家怀疑它们会被丢弃。田纳西大学哈斯拉姆商学院供应链教授艾伦·阿姆林(Alan Amling)在给《财富》杂志的电子邮件中写道:“这些芯片最终会如同你从姨妈那里得到的‘酷炫熔岩灯’一样,被扔进某个垃圾填埋场。鉴于存在如此多其他增长机遇,重新利用、重新测试和重新认证这些芯片的机会成本显然过高。”

田纳西大学的奥特里表示,因特朗普政府出口新规生效速度极快,这些无法交付的H20芯片或许目前正存放在中国台湾和中国香港等对美友好地区。总部位于中国台湾的台积电(TSMC)为英伟达生产了大量面向中国客户的芯片库存,而英伟达的物流履约合作伙伴也位于周边国家。

对H20芯片进行减值冲销,对英伟达本就蒸蒸日上的业务而言,短期影响几乎可以忽略不计。该公司第一季度营收高达441亿美元(同比增长69%),净利润达188亿美元,净利润率保持在健康的42.6%。

将芯片全额减值,通过减少应纳税所得额,为公司带来了直接的税收优惠。根据英伟达未来的销售前景和成本情况,这种税收优惠可能超过或接近大幅折价出售芯片所带来的财务收益。

罗格斯大学的阿扎德甘表示:“英伟达会安然无恙,英伟达的投资者也无需担忧。”他指出,“真正的问题”在于,像台积电这样的制造合作伙伴以及包括三星(Samsung)和美光(Micron)在内的供应商,可能受H20库存减值冲击最大,因为它们通过在英伟达供应链中承担关键职能来开展业务。阿扎德甘指出,这些合作伙伴受影响的程度将在未来数月甚至数年里逐渐明晰。“转型绝非一朝一夕之事。”

派杰证券(Piper Sandler)英伟达分析师哈什·库马尔(Harsh Kumar)希望特朗普最终能解除对H20芯片对华出口的封锁。若真如此,假设英伟达仍保留着H20库存,就能最终完成H20的销售,或将芯片交付给中国的新客户。在特朗普政府就法官对其“解放日”关税实施的禁令提出上诉后,这种情况成为现实的可能性目前尚不明晰。

尽管如此,特朗普新出台的出口禁令以国家安全为由,阻止英伟达向中国交付芯片,因此这一举措与他的关税议程或许几乎毫无关联。库马尔向《财富》杂志表示:“在我看来,这几乎表明黄仁勋和英伟达找到了将这批H20芯片重新销往中国的途径。”这或许能助力这家股价本就高企的公司未来再攀新高。(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Nvidia’s blockbuster quarterly earnings last week came with a big dose of negative news: A $4.5 billion write down on chips originally destined for customers in China that will ultimately go undelivered.

The company had developed the so-called H20 chips, which are less powerful than its top-of-the-line semiconductors, to comply with Biden Administration regulations against sending technology to foreign adversaries that could help their AI efforts. The Trump Administration, however, went a step further in early April and banned exports of even second-tier chips.

“We are taking a multibillion dollar write off on inventory that cannot be sold or repurposed,” said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on a May 28 earnings call.

The details around the decision to write the value of the chips to zero—rather than sell them to other customers—wasn’t explained. The company added, without elaborating, that it’s “exploring limited options” for the unused inventory, a move that would apparently fall short of selling the chips.

The H20 was built specifically for the China market under the old export rules. Because of the chip’s design and limited capabilities, it may be difficult to use in other countries. “It doesn’t really fit anywhere else without a lot of expensive tweaking,” says Arash Azadegan, a professor of supply chain management at Rutgers Business School.

This tweaking could involve additional costs for Nvidia. Furthermore, some of the chips may “not meet the performance needs of customers in other regions” or may be engineered “specific to Chinese customer requests or requirements,” says Chad Autry, a University of Tennessee supply chain professor.

Even if it could sell the chips by cutting their price, Nvidia would risk damaging its image as a seller of top-tier innovation. The company’s new Blackwell GPUs, after all, power cutting-edge AI like OpenAI’s yet-to-be-released GPT-5 model. “Nvidia probably doesn’t want to flood the market with discounted chips—it could mess with their pricing, confuse customers, and distract from their big push into the newer Blackwell lineup,” says Azadegan, referencing Blackwell’s used in new products from Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Oracle, among others.

Nvidia declined to comment beyond what its executives said during the company’s earnings call last week.

After China-based DeepSeek released its ChatGPT rival in January, major Chinese firms like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent purchased Nvidia’s H20 chips, Reuters reported in February. These companies have likely developed powerful AI capabilities using H20 chips, so there’s little reason to believe that U.S. companies could not do the same if Nvidia sold H20 to them.

But Nvidia and U.S.-based customers probably have no interest in this, says Matthew Bryson, a Wedbush Securities managing director who covers Nvidia. “The reason that these products are going to China is because everyone would choose something better.” Bryson explains that the technology underpinning H20s “would never have been made” if not intentionally engineered to prevent Chinese firms from building models similar to U.S.-made advanced AI applications. And if Nvidia sold the chips at a big discount to reflect their U.S. market value, it could “cannibalize” sales of better products, he says.

Nvidia had initially expected to have to write off $5.5 billion of chip inventory from its balance sheet. But it managed to salvage about $1 billion of H20 inventory by “[reusing] certain materials,” reducing the realized first-quarter writeoff to $4.5 billion, chief financial officer Colette Kress said on last week’s earnings call.

Unsurprisingly, she noted that as a result of the Trump Administration’s new export rule, Nvidia will take a revenue hit from Trump’s China ban in the first half of the year. The company booked a $2.5 billion loss in first quarter revenue and predicted a steeper $8 billion revenue loss in the second one.

The question remains of what happens with this H20 stockpile. Supply chain experts interviewed by Fortune suspect it will be discarded. “These chips will meet the “cool lava lamp” you got from your aunt in a landfill somewhere,” Alan Amling, a professor of supply chain at the University of Tennessee’s Haslam College of Business, wrote to Fortune via email. “With so many other growth opportunities, the opportunity cost of repurposing, retesting and requalifying these chips was obviously too high a bar.”

Because of how quickly the new export rules under Trump took effect, the undeliverable H20 chips are likely sitting in U.S.-friendly places like Taiwan and Hong Kong, said University of Tennessee’s Autry. Taiwan-based TSMC manufactures much of Nvidia’s inventory meant for China-based customers, and Nvidia’s fulfillment partners are in nearby countries.

Writing off the H20 chips had minimal short-term impact on Nvidia’s otherwise booming business. Nvidia reported first quarter revenue of $44.1 billion (up 69% year-over-year) and $18.8 billion in net income, representing a healthy 42.6% net profit margin.

Writing down the full value of the chips provides an immediate tax benefit by reducing the company’s taxable income. Depending on Nvidia’s future sales prospects and costs, this benefit could outweigh or come close to the financial benefit of selling the chips at a steep discount.

“Nvidia is going to be alright; investors of Nvidia are going to be alright,” says Rutgers’ Azadegan. “The real story,” he said, is that Nvidia’s manufacturing partners like TSMC and suppliers, including Samsung and Micron, could be most impacted by the H20 inventory writeoff because they’ve built businesses by serving critical functions in Nvidia’s supply chain. The magnitude of the impact to these partners will be determined in the months and years ahead, notes Azadegan. “It’s never on a dime that we can pivot.”

Nvidia analyst Harsh Kumar of Piper Sandler is hopeful that Trump eventually undoes the blockade on H20 chips to China. If so, Nvidia could finally complete the H20 sales or deliver the chips to new customers in China, assuming the company holds onto the H20 inventory. It’s unclear how realistic this scenario is after the Trump administration appealed a judge-imposed block on his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Still, Trump’s new export ban prevents Nvidia from delivering chips to China for national security reasons, so it may have little to no correlation with his tariff agenda. “To me, it almost implied that there is a pathway that Jensen [Huang] and Nvidia see for this H20 chip to be sold back into China,” Kumar told Fortune, potentially helping to propel the company’s already high-flying stock to greater heights in the future.

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