
2006年7月3日,沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)驱车前往奥马哈市中心的美国银行分行,径直步入大厅后步入地下金库,打开自己的保险箱。他取出一张纸——一张代表121737股伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司股票的凭证,彼时价值约110亿美元。此次股权变现所获资金,仅占他所持伯克希尔股份的一小部分,这笔款项将作为他践行捐赠几乎全部财富计划的首笔资金。
那次银行之行堪称巴菲特人生的标志性事件,也是这位全球公认的最伟大投资者人生故事中极具金融象征意义的事件。他当时告诉《财富》杂志,这让他想起了约70年前的另一次银行之行,当时那家银行叫奥马哈国民银行。回顾往事,那次经历仿佛是他金融生涯的另一个开端。当时巴菲特6岁,父亲为他开设了一个储蓄账户,并存入20美元。
在这两次银行之行之间,巴菲特创立了伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司,将其打造成美国最大的企业集团,并闻名全球。5月3日,他宣布将在年底把首席执行官的接力棒交给长期副手格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),为这段传奇征程画下句点。
巴菲特将留下无人能及的投资纪录。从1965年到2024年,他为伯克希尔股东实现了19.9%的年均回报率,包括他自己在内的原始投资者的总回报率约为5500000%。若未捐赠大量股票,到21世纪20年代,他的财富本可超过2000亿美元,成为全球首富。
因此,数十年来困扰投资者的一个显而易见的问题是:巴菲特如何将20美元本金增值到超2000亿美元?为何无人能复制?他是如何找到秘诀的?秘诀究竟是什么?
人们很容易从巴菲特那些令人难忘的格言中寻找答案:“别人恐惧我贪婪,别人贪婪我恐惧。”“以合理的价格买入一家优秀的企业远胜过以便宜的价格买入一家平庸的企业。”“只购买那些即使市场关闭十年你仍然乐意持有的东西。”
他对这些理念深信不疑,但这并非其成功的关键。关键在于,他从未停止过探寻成功的秘诀。当被问及成功之道时,他常说这仅仅是因为自己“理性”。这个答案看似简单,但理性的人会在现实需要时颠覆既有认知,而我们中的大多数人发现这样做极其艰难。
巴菲特却能做到这一点。他的格言看似是刻在石碑上的真理,实则是通过学习所得。他从少年时期便开始在实践中艰难摸索。作为青少年投资者,他尝试过技术分析,研究股价图表以寻找“蜡烛图”或“看跌背离信号” ,发现无用后便放弃;也尝试过几乎所有投资者都试过的“市场择时”,在恰当的时刻买入卖出,未果后同样选择放弃。
他甚至做出了非理性的情绪化决策。1942年,11岁的他买入了人生第一只股票:为自己和姐姐多丽丝各买了三股城市服务优先股(Cities Service是一家石油天然气公司,即如今的雪铁戈公司(Citgo))。股价很快下跌,当最终回升并略高于买入价时,他卖出了股票,随后股价继续上涨并迅速翻了五倍。他从此铭记,不应纠结于无法改变的买入价,而应只关注公司的未来。他也认识到,如果要替别人理财,自己必须有十足的把握能胜任。他的传记作者艾丽斯·施罗德(Alice Schroeder)写道,巴菲特“认为这段经历是他一生中最重要的经历之一”。
多年后,作为一名成功的基金经理,在面临更大风险时,他敢于再次改变投资理念。1949年至1951年,在哥伦比亚商学院求学时期,巴菲特成为本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的忠实门徒。格雷厄姆是著名投资指南《证券分析》的合著者,主张只根据财务比率以极低价格买入股票。但巴菲特的商业伙伴查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)说服他,即便并非极其便宜,基本面良好的企业也值得投资。1972年,巴菲特以三倍于账面价值的价格收购了喜诗糖果公司(See’s Candies)——这对格雷厄姆的追随者而言堪称“离经叛道”的高价——此后从未动摇,喜诗糖果至今仍是伯克希尔的优质资产。
他从未停止挑战自己的信念。他看清了20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫的本质,并直言不讳。他解释说,自己不会投资互联网股票,因为这些股票难以估值。硅谷的拥趸们则得意地摇着头,惋惜老沃伦错失科技革命良机。
当股灾来临时,他本可沾沾自喜,却在后来找到了更好的回应方式。2016年,他开始买入科技巨头苹果公司的股票,这只股票逐渐成为伯克希尔股票投资组合中最大的持仓。
华尔街分析师常警告苹果公司股票定价过高。本杰明·格雷厄姆也会反对这样的投资,但巴菲特看到的是一家极其优秀的企业——利润丰厚,其产品坐拥宽广的“护城河”。他在2023年对股东说:"这恰好是比我们拥有的任何企业都要好的企业。”(伯克希尔公司在2024年出售了其持有的大部分苹果公司股票,但截至年底,苹果公司仍是公司最大的股票持仓。)在伯克希尔公司最近的年会上,巴菲特说:"令我难为情的是,(苹果公司首席执行官)蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)为伯克希尔创造的财富比我为伯克希尔-哈撒韦创造的多得多。”
在不断思考如何赚钱的同时,巴菲特也在重新思考如何捐赠财富。多年来,他一直计划在去世后通过自己设立的基金会捐赠大部分财富(称“超过99%”)。但2006年,75岁的他(早已超过大多数首席执行官的退休年龄)改变了主意——决定立即开始捐赠,大部分捐给比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会,一小部分捐给他最初的基金会和三个成年子女各自设立的基金会。
为何会有这样的转变?同样是因为他再次调整了自己的观点,以适应现实。他与盖茨夫妇已是15年的好友,钦佩他们在基金会的工作,该基金会有足够规模管理他将捐赠的巨额资金,且他们比他年轻许多。正如他向《财富》杂志解释的那样,这一结论完全符合“巴菲特风格”:“无论你想做什么,找到比你更有能力做这件事的人,还有什么比这更合乎逻辑的呢?”
这就是为什么他独自一人来到奥马哈市中心的保险箱前,取出那张价值110亿美元的凭证。他很快将其寄给盖茨基金会。我们无从知晓他那一刻的情感——与自己一生心血的重要部分告别,但很难相信他会哽咽或颤抖,更有可能的是,他面带微笑。
三次重大转向
沃伦·巴菲特比大多数人更擅长改变方向——这也是他成功和长寿的原因。
放弃“烟蒂股”
巴菲特职业生涯初期是本杰明·格雷厄姆的追随者,后者主张只以极低价格买入股票。但巴菲特的商业伙伴查理·芒格说服他,部分实力雄厚的公司即便价格不低也值得买入——这为巴菲特的一些最佳投资铺平了道路。
追赶科技潮流
尽管缔造了投资界无人能及的传奇纪录,但他曾认为科技公司的未来价值难以估量而避开它们。但他最终认识到,在首席执行官蒂姆·库克领导下的苹果公司是一家具备传统优势的优秀企业,拥有宽广的“护城河”。苹果公司成为伯克希尔-哈撒韦表现最佳的持仓之一。
将财富托付给更擅分配的智者
巴菲特原本计划死后捐出大部分财富,但比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会的成就改变了他的想法,并吸引他捐赠约400亿美元。正如他对《财富》杂志所说:"无论你想做什么,找到比你更有能力做这件事的人,还有什么比这更合乎逻辑的呢?”(财富中文网)
本文刊登于《财富》杂志2025年6-7月刊,标题为"沃伦·巴菲特成功的秘诀:他懂得如何改变想法”。
译者:中慧言-王芳
2006年7月3日,沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)驱车前往奥马哈市中心的美国银行分行,径直步入大厅后步入地下金库,打开自己的保险箱。他取出一张纸——一张代表121737股伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司股票的凭证,彼时价值约110亿美元。此次股权变现所获资金,仅占他所持伯克希尔股份的一小部分,这笔款项将作为他践行捐赠几乎全部财富计划的首笔资金。
那次银行之行堪称巴菲特人生的标志性事件,也是这位全球公认的最伟大投资者人生故事中极具金融象征意义的事件。他当时告诉《财富》杂志,这让他想起了约70年前的另一次银行之行,当时那家银行叫奥马哈国民银行。回顾往事,那次经历仿佛是他金融生涯的另一个开端。当时巴菲特6岁,父亲为他开设了一个储蓄账户,并存入20美元。
在这两次银行之行之间,巴菲特创立了伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司,将其打造成美国最大的企业集团,并闻名全球。5月3日,他宣布将在年底把首席执行官的接力棒交给长期副手格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel),为这段传奇征程画下句点。
巴菲特将留下无人能及的投资纪录。从1965年到2024年,他为伯克希尔股东实现了19.9%的年均回报率,包括他自己在内的原始投资者的总回报率约为5500000%。若未捐赠大量股票,到21世纪20年代,他的财富本可超过2000亿美元,成为全球首富。
因此,数十年来困扰投资者的一个显而易见的问题是:巴菲特如何将20美元本金增值到超2000亿美元?为何无人能复制?他是如何找到秘诀的?秘诀究竟是什么?
人们很容易从巴菲特那些令人难忘的格言中寻找答案:“别人恐惧我贪婪,别人贪婪我恐惧。”“以合理的价格买入一家优秀的企业远胜过以便宜的价格买入一家平庸的企业。”“只购买那些即使市场关闭十年你仍然乐意持有的东西。”
他对这些理念深信不疑,但这并非其成功的关键。关键在于,他从未停止过探寻成功的秘诀。当被问及成功之道时,他常说这仅仅是因为自己“理性”。这个答案看似简单,但理性的人会在现实需要时颠覆既有认知,而我们中的大多数人发现这样做极其艰难。
巴菲特却能做到这一点。他的格言看似是刻在石碑上的真理,实则是通过学习所得。他从少年时期便开始在实践中艰难摸索。作为青少年投资者,他尝试过技术分析,研究股价图表以寻找“蜡烛图”或“看跌背离信号” ,发现无用后便放弃;也尝试过几乎所有投资者都试过的“市场择时”,在恰当的时刻买入卖出,未果后同样选择放弃。
他甚至做出了非理性的情绪化决策。1942年,11岁的他买入了人生第一只股票:为自己和姐姐多丽丝各买了三股城市服务优先股(Cities Service是一家石油天然气公司,即如今的雪铁戈公司(Citgo))。股价很快下跌,当最终回升并略高于买入价时,他卖出了股票,随后股价继续上涨并迅速翻了五倍。他从此铭记,不应纠结于无法改变的买入价,而应只关注公司的未来。他也认识到,如果要替别人理财,自己必须有十足的把握能胜任。他的传记作者艾丽斯·施罗德(Alice Schroeder)写道,巴菲特“认为这段经历是他一生中最重要的经历之一”。
多年后,作为一名成功的基金经理,在面临更大风险时,他敢于再次改变投资理念。1949年至1951年,在哥伦比亚商学院求学时期,巴菲特成为本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的忠实门徒。格雷厄姆是著名投资指南《证券分析》的合著者,主张只根据财务比率以极低价格买入股票。但巴菲特的商业伙伴查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)说服他,即便并非极其便宜,基本面良好的企业也值得投资。1972年,巴菲特以三倍于账面价值的价格收购了喜诗糖果公司(See’s Candies)——这对格雷厄姆的追随者而言堪称“离经叛道”的高价——此后从未动摇,喜诗糖果至今仍是伯克希尔的优质资产。
他从未停止挑战自己的信念。他看清了20世纪90年代末互联网泡沫的本质,并直言不讳。他解释说,自己不会投资互联网股票,因为这些股票难以估值。硅谷的拥趸们则得意地摇着头,惋惜老沃伦错失科技革命良机。
当股灾来临时,他本可沾沾自喜,却在后来找到了更好的回应方式。2016年,他开始买入科技巨头苹果公司的股票,这只股票逐渐成为伯克希尔股票投资组合中最大的持仓。
华尔街分析师常警告苹果公司股票定价过高。本杰明·格雷厄姆也会反对这样的投资,但巴菲特看到的是一家极其优秀的企业——利润丰厚,其产品坐拥宽广的“护城河”。他在2023年对股东说:"这恰好是比我们拥有的任何企业都要好的企业。”(伯克希尔公司在2024年出售了其持有的大部分苹果公司股票,但截至年底,苹果公司仍是公司最大的股票持仓。)在伯克希尔公司最近的年会上,巴菲特说:"令我难为情的是,(苹果公司首席执行官)蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)为伯克希尔创造的财富比我为伯克希尔-哈撒韦创造的多得多。”
在不断思考如何赚钱的同时,巴菲特也在重新思考如何捐赠财富。多年来,他一直计划在去世后通过自己设立的基金会捐赠大部分财富(称“超过99%”)。但2006年,75岁的他(早已超过大多数首席执行官的退休年龄)改变了主意——决定立即开始捐赠,大部分捐给比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会,一小部分捐给他最初的基金会和三个成年子女各自设立的基金会。
为何会有这样的转变?同样是因为他再次调整了自己的观点,以适应现实。他与盖茨夫妇已是15年的好友,钦佩他们在基金会的工作,该基金会有足够规模管理他将捐赠的巨额资金,且他们比他年轻许多。正如他向《财富》杂志解释的那样,这一结论完全符合“巴菲特风格”:“无论你想做什么,找到比你更有能力做这件事的人,还有什么比这更合乎逻辑的呢?”
这就是为什么他独自一人来到奥马哈市中心的保险箱前,取出那张价值110亿美元的凭证。他很快将其寄给盖茨基金会。我们无从知晓他那一刻的情感——与自己一生心血的重要部分告别,但很难相信他会哽咽或颤抖,更有可能的是,他面带微笑。
三次重大转向
沃伦·巴菲特比大多数人更擅长改变方向——这也是他成功和长寿的原因。
放弃“烟蒂股”
巴菲特职业生涯初期是本杰明·格雷厄姆的追随者,后者主张只以极低价格买入股票。但巴菲特的商业伙伴查理·芒格说服他,部分实力雄厚的公司即便价格不低也值得买入——这为巴菲特的一些最佳投资铺平了道路。
追赶科技潮流
尽管缔造了投资界无人能及的传奇纪录,但他曾认为科技公司的未来价值难以估量而避开它们。但他最终认识到,在首席执行官蒂姆·库克领导下的苹果公司是一家具备传统优势的优秀企业,拥有宽广的“护城河”。苹果公司成为伯克希尔-哈撒韦表现最佳的持仓之一。
将财富托付给更擅分配的智者
巴菲特原本计划死后捐出大部分财富,但比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会的成就改变了他的想法,并吸引他捐赠约400亿美元。正如他对《财富》杂志所说:"无论你想做什么,找到比你更有能力做这件事的人,还有什么比这更合乎逻辑的呢?”(财富中文网)
本文刊登于《财富》杂志2025年6-7月刊,标题为"沃伦·巴菲特成功的秘诀:他懂得如何改变想法”。
译者:中慧言-王芳
On July 3, 2006, Warren Buffett drove to the U.S. Bank branch in downtown Omaha, walked in, went downstairs, and opened his safe-deposit box. He removed a piece of paper, a certificate for 121,737 shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock. It was worth about $11 billion. The money from the sale of those shares, a fraction of his Berkshire holdings, would be the first tranche in his program to give away virtually all his wealth.
That bank visit was a bookend in Buffett’s life, a fittingly financial signal event in the life story of the man widely regarded as the world’s greatest investor. He told Fortune at the time that it reminded him of a visit to that same bank, then called Omaha National, almost 70 years earlier, an event that in retrospect seems the other bookend in Buffett’s financial life. He was 6 years old. His father set up a savings account for him and put $20 in it.
Between those two bank visits, Buffett created Berkshire Hathaway, made it America’s largest conglomerate, and became globally famous. On May 3, he signaled the end of that remarkable run, announcing that he would hand the CEO reins to his longtime lieutenant Greg Abel at the end of this year.
Buffett will be leaving with an unmatchable record. He achieved a 19.9% average annual return to Berkshire shareholders from 1965 through 2024, or about 5.5 million percent in total for original investors, including himself. By the 2020s his wealth would have reached over $200 billion, making him the world’s richest person—if he hadn’t given away so much of his stock.
Thus the obvious questions that have transfixed investors for decades: How did Buffett grow $20 to well over $200 billion? Why weren’t others able to do it? How did he find the secret? What is the secret?
It’s tempting to look for answers in the aphorisms Buffett coined so memorably: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” “Only buy something you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
He believed them intensely, but they aren’t the key to his success. The key is, he never stopped seeking the key. When asked to explain his success, he often said it was simply that he was “rational.” It sounds so easy. But rational people change their beliefs when reality dictates, and most of us find doing so excruciatingly hard.
Buffett could do it. His maxims sound as if he found them engraved on a stone tablet, but in reality he learned them. He was just a kid when he started learning the hard way. As a teenage investor he tried technical analysis, studying charts of stock prices looking for “candlesticks” or “bearish divergence signals.” That didn’t work, so he gave it up. He tried what nearly every investor tries, timing the market, choosing just the right moments to buy and sell. That didn’t work either, so he left it behind.
He even made irrational, emotional decisions. At age 11, in 1942, he bought his first stock: three shares of Cities Service Preferred for himself and three shares for his sister Doris. (Cities Service was the oil and gas company now known as Citgo.) The price quickly dropped. When it finally recovered and rose just above the price he had paid, he sold—and the price kept rising, soon quintupling. He never forgot that he should ignore the price he had paid, which he couldn’t change, and focus only on the company’s future. He learned also that if he was going to invest someone else’s money, he had better be highly confident he could do it well. His biographer, Alice Schroeder, wrote that Buffett “would call this episode one of the most important of his life.”
Years later, as a successful fund manager with much more at stake, he dared to change his philosophy of investing yet again. At Columbia Business School from 1949 to 1951, Buffett had become a devoted student of Benjamin Graham, coauthor of the famous investing guide Security Analysis, who advised buying stocks only at extreme bargain prices based on financial ratios. But Buffett’s business partner, Charlie Munger, convinced him that fundamentally good businesses could be worth buying even if they weren’t screaming bargains. In 1972, Buffett bought See’s Candies for three times book value—heretically expensive, to Grahamites—and never looked back. See’s remains a great performer for Berkshire.
He never stopped challenging his beliefs. He saw the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s for what it was and said so. He wouldn’t invest in internet stocks, he explained, because they were impossible to value. Silicon Valley cheerleaders shook their heads smugly, lamenting that old Warren had let the tech revolution pass him by.
When the crash hit, he had every right to be smug himself, but he later found a much better riposte. In 2016 he started buying into tech royalty: Apple, which grew to be the largest holding in Berkshire’s stock portfolio.
Wall Street analysts had often warned that Apple stock was overpriced. Ben Graham would have disapproved. But Buffett saw an incredibly good business—enormously profitable, with a huge competitive “moat” around its products. He told his shareholders in 2023, “It just happens to be a better business than any we own.” (Berkshire sold the majority of its Apple shares over the course of 2024, but it remained the company’s biggest equity holding at the end of the year.) At Berkshire’s recent annual meeting, Buffett said, “I’m somewhat embarrassed to say that [Apple CEO] Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I’ve ever made for Berkshire Hathaway.”
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While always rethinking how to make money, Buffett was also rethinking how to give it away. For years he had planned to start donating his wealth (“more than 99%” of it, he said) at his death through a foundation he had set up. But in 2006, at 75, well past the age when most CEOs have retired, he changed his mind. He would instead start donating it immediately, mostly to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, with smaller amounts going to his original foundation and the foundations set up by each of his three adult children. (Bill Gates is now making a remarkable commitment with the help of those donations, and with Buffett’s blessing; see “Bill Gates’ $200 billion moonshot: Inside the biggest bet on humanity a philanthropist has ever made“)
Why the shift? Once again he shaped his views to fit reality. He had been a good friend of the Gateses’ for 15 years and admired their work at the foundation, which was big enough to handle the enormous sums he would be sending to them. They were also significantly younger than himself. His conclusion, as he explained it to Fortune, was pure Buffett: “What can be more logical, in whatever you want done, than finding someone better equipped than you are to do it?”
That’s what brought him to his safe-deposit box in downtown Omaha, by himself, removing a piece of paper worth $11 billion. He would soon send it to the Gates Foundation. We cannot know his emotions at that moment, as he said goodbye to a significant portion of his life’s work, but it’s difficult to believe that he swallowed hard or trembled. More likely he was smiling.
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Three great pivots
Warren Buffett has been better than most at changing course—a fact that explains both his success and his longevity.
Giving up “cigar butts”
Buffett began his career as a disciple of Benjamin Graham, who recommended buying stocks only at rock-bottom prices. But Buffett’s business partner, Charlie Munger, convinced him that some strong companies were worth buying even when they weren’t bargains— paving the way for some of Buffett’s best investments.
Catching up on tech
Even as he built a peerless track record, Buffett avoided investing in tech companies, arguing that their future value was impossible to estimate. But he eventually came to recognize Apple, under CEO Tim Cook, as a traditionally great business with a huge competitive “moat.” It became one of Berkshire Hathaway’s top-performing holdings.
Giving to the better giver
Buffett had long planned to give away most of his wealth after his death. But the accomplishments of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation changed his mind—and attracted some $40 billion of his money. As he told Fortune, “What can be more logical, in whatever you want done, than finding someone better equipped than you are to do it?”
This article appears in the June/July 2025 issue of Fortune with the headline “Warren Buffett’s secret to success: He knew how to change his mind.”