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美联储制定新战略,鲍威尔预测通胀率将出现更多波动

PAOLO CONFINO
2025-05-19

美联储预测未来经济将面临更多动荡。

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美联储每五年就会重新审视其政策框架,以确保美国经济维持充分就业和价格稳定的发展路径。这是美国国会要求美联储凭借有限的工具必须实现的双重目标,与此同时还需要考量不断演变的宏观经济状况、劳动力市场和GDP增长。这一战略明确了美联储实现这两个目标的路径,而这两个目标是保持经济稳定的基石。

上周四,美联储召开会议讨论如何维持最充分就业和2%的长期通胀目标,这次会议对经济前景的预测是未来将面临更多动荡。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会议开幕致辞时表示:“我们可能正进入一个供应冲击更为频繁,甚至可能更持久的时期,这对经济和央行来说都是一项严峻挑战。”

鲍威尔并未详细讨论经济现状,而是着重讲述了美国经济从大衰退后的复苏到当下的演变过程。在经济复苏期间利率极低,而目前美联储的基准利率则介于4.25%至4.5%之间。鲍威尔表示,利率上升的原因在于未来通胀可能更加难以预测。

鲍威尔表示:“更高的实际利率也可能反映出,今后的通货膨胀波动性,会超过2010年代两次危机之间的时期。”

回顾过去五年美联储现行框架指导货币政策的过程时,鲍威尔谈到了新冠疫情。在美联储的现行战略执行后不久,新冠疫情便席卷全球。当时,美国经济已经在十多年里陷入了低增长、低通胀和低利率的状态。因此,鲍威尔表示,美联储的货币政策原计划在通胀率低于2%的目标时,尝试“有意识且适度地”超过通胀目标。

但后来疫情爆发,彻底打乱了这些计划。

鲍威尔表示:“在我们宣布调整共识声明(美联储的五年计划)后几个月内出现的全球通胀,既不是有意为之,也称不上‘适度’。”

2022年夏,年化通胀率最终高达9.1%。为了遏制物价的急剧上涨,美联储开始加息。接下来发生的事情同样出人意料。随着利率上升和通胀回落,失业率并未如传统经济理论预示的那样急剧上升,反而维持在约3.5%的历史低位。

鲍威尔表示:“这个结果令人欣喜,且是历史上罕见的……此次通胀回落并未导致失业率急剧攀升。在通过加息抑制通胀时,经常会伴随着失业率升高。”

鲍威尔表示,这些变化将被纳入美联储新战略的考量。他表示:“自2020年以来,经济环境已发生显著变化,这将反映在我们对这些变化的评估当中。”

不过,有一点始终不会改变,那就是必须夯实美联储所说的“长期通胀预期”。

鲍威尔说道:“虽然政策框架必须与时俱进,但有些要素是永恒的。政策制定者们经历过大通胀时期,他们深知将通胀预期锚定在适当低位至关重要。”

通胀预期是一个关键指标,因为它描述了美联储、投资者、经济学家和企业对未来通胀走势的预期。即便某个月的报告中物价出现波动起伏,只要企业和消费者普遍预期物价未来将保持稳定,他们通常仍会继续支出。如果预期经济长期向好,企业更有可能进行大规模投资;消费者也不会因担心经济衰退而缩减开支。在4月那段充满不确定性和市场动荡的时期,鲍威尔一再强调,长期通胀预期依然保持稳定这一事实。

鲍威尔表示,维持通胀预期的稳定对美国疫情后经济复苏起到了关键作用。

鲍威尔表示:“自大通胀时期以来,美国经历了史上四次最长扩张周期中的三次。锚定通胀预期在促进经济扩张中发挥了关键作用。最近的案例证明,若无此锚点,就不可能在不引发失业率飙升的情况下,实现约五个百分点的通胀回落。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

美联储每五年就会重新审视其政策框架,以确保美国经济维持充分就业和价格稳定的发展路径。这是美国国会要求美联储凭借有限的工具必须实现的双重目标,与此同时还需要考量不断演变的宏观经济状况、劳动力市场和GDP增长。这一战略明确了美联储实现这两个目标的路径,而这两个目标是保持经济稳定的基石。

上周四,美联储召开会议讨论如何维持最充分就业和2%的长期通胀目标,这次会议对经济前景的预测是未来将面临更多动荡。

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会议开幕致辞时表示:“我们可能正进入一个供应冲击更为频繁,甚至可能更持久的时期,这对经济和央行来说都是一项严峻挑战。”

鲍威尔并未详细讨论经济现状,而是着重讲述了美国经济从大衰退后的复苏到当下的演变过程。在经济复苏期间利率极低,而目前美联储的基准利率则介于4.25%至4.5%之间。鲍威尔表示,利率上升的原因在于未来通胀可能更加难以预测。

鲍威尔表示:“更高的实际利率也可能反映出,今后的通货膨胀波动性,会超过2010年代两次危机之间的时期。”

回顾过去五年美联储现行框架指导货币政策的过程时,鲍威尔谈到了新冠疫情。在美联储的现行战略执行后不久,新冠疫情便席卷全球。当时,美国经济已经在十多年里陷入了低增长、低通胀和低利率的状态。因此,鲍威尔表示,美联储的货币政策原计划在通胀率低于2%的目标时,尝试“有意识且适度地”超过通胀目标。

但后来疫情爆发,彻底打乱了这些计划。

鲍威尔表示:“在我们宣布调整共识声明(美联储的五年计划)后几个月内出现的全球通胀,既不是有意为之,也称不上‘适度’。”

2022年夏,年化通胀率最终高达9.1%。为了遏制物价的急剧上涨,美联储开始加息。接下来发生的事情同样出人意料。随着利率上升和通胀回落,失业率并未如传统经济理论预示的那样急剧上升,反而维持在约3.5%的历史低位。

鲍威尔表示:“这个结果令人欣喜,且是历史上罕见的……此次通胀回落并未导致失业率急剧攀升。在通过加息抑制通胀时,经常会伴随着失业率升高。”

鲍威尔表示,这些变化将被纳入美联储新战略的考量。他表示:“自2020年以来,经济环境已发生显著变化,这将反映在我们对这些变化的评估当中。”

不过,有一点始终不会改变,那就是必须夯实美联储所说的“长期通胀预期”。

鲍威尔说道:“虽然政策框架必须与时俱进,但有些要素是永恒的。政策制定者们经历过大通胀时期,他们深知将通胀预期锚定在适当低位至关重要。”

通胀预期是一个关键指标,因为它描述了美联储、投资者、经济学家和企业对未来通胀走势的预期。即便某个月的报告中物价出现波动起伏,只要企业和消费者普遍预期物价未来将保持稳定,他们通常仍会继续支出。如果预期经济长期向好,企业更有可能进行大规模投资;消费者也不会因担心经济衰退而缩减开支。在4月那段充满不确定性和市场动荡的时期,鲍威尔一再强调,长期通胀预期依然保持稳定这一事实。

鲍威尔表示,维持通胀预期的稳定对美国疫情后经济复苏起到了关键作用。

鲍威尔表示:“自大通胀时期以来,美国经历了史上四次最长扩张周期中的三次。锚定通胀预期在促进经济扩张中发挥了关键作用。最近的案例证明,若无此锚点,就不可能在不引发失业率飙升的情况下,实现约五个百分点的通胀回落。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Every five years the Federal Reserve reexamines the framework it uses to ensure its keeping the U.S. economy on a path of full employment and stable prices—a congressionally mandated double goal it must achieve with just a few tools, while keeping stock of evolving macroeconomic conditions, the labor market, and GDP growth. The strategy informs how exactly the Fed will achieve both its goals, which are the bedrock of a stable economy.

On Thursday, as the Fed began a conference to discuss how it would maintain maximum employment and 2% long-term inflation, the prognosis was: more turbulence.

“We may be entering a period of more frequent and potentially more persistent supply shocks, a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said during the conference’s opening remarks.

Powell did not discuss in detail the current state of the economy, instead focusing on its evolution from the post-Great Recession recovery to today. During the recovery period interest rates were extremely low, while the Fed’s benchmark rate now sits between 4.25% and 4.5%. Rates are higher because inflation could be more unpredictable going forward, Powell said.

“Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be more volatile going forward than during the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,” he said.

In looking back at the past five years under which the Fed’s current framework informed monetary policy, Powell discussed the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the world shortly after the current strategy was implemented. At the time the U.S. economy had been stuck in over a decade with low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates. As a result, the plan had been for monetary policy to try and achieve an “intentional, moderate” overshoot of the 2% inflation target in periods when it was below that level, Powell said.

Then the pandemic hit and completely disrupted those plans.

“There was nothing intentional or moderate about the global inflation that arrived a few months after we announced our changes to the consensus statement,” Powell said, referring to the Fed’s name for its five-year plans.

Annual inflation eventually rose as high as 9.1% in the summer of 2022. To curb the soaring price increases, the Fed started raising rates. What happened next was also unexpected. As rates rose and inflation came down, unemployment didn’t spike, as conventional economic wisdom dictated it would. Instead unemployment remained at its historically low levels of around 3.5%.

“In a welcome and historically unusual result…this disinflation has come without the sharp increase in unemployment that has often accompanied a campaign of rate hikes to reduce inflation,” Powell said.

Those changes will factor into the Fed’s new strategy, Powell said. “The economic environment has changed significantly since 2020 in our review, which will reflect our assessment of those changes,” he said.

However, one thing that will remain consistent is the need to ground what the Fed refers to as “long-term inflation expectations.”

“While the framework must evolve, some elements of it are timeless,” Powell said. “Policymakers emerged from the great inflation with a clear understanding that it was essential to anchor inflation expectations at an appropriately low level.”

Inflation expectations is a critical measure because it describes how the Fed, investors, economists, and businesses believe inflation will be in the future. Even if price increases tip up or down in a given monthly report, if businesses and consumers expect them to stay steady in the future, they generally still keep spending. Businesses are more likely to make major capital expenditures and consumers won’t hunker down in anticipation of a downturn if they believe the economy will be ok in the long run. During the rampant uncertainty and market tumult of April, Powell regularly pointed to the fact that long-term inflation expectations had remained steady.

Keeping inflation expectations level was key to the U.S.’s post-pandemic recovery, Powell said.

“Since the Great Inflation, the U.S. economy has had three of its four longest expansions on record,” Powell said. “Anchored expectations played a key role in facilitating these expansions. More recently, without that anchor, it would not have been possible to achieve a roughly five percentage point disinflation without a spike in unemployment.”

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