
政府和商界领袖对迫在眉睫的人口危机忧心忡忡已经有一段时间了,但他们可能仅聚焦于问题的一个维度。世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的一份新报告指出,在未来五年内,预计有两大人口结构变化将重塑全球劳动力格局。
首先当然是高收入国家面临的人口老龄化问题。报告称,随着人口老龄化,这些国家约40%的雇主将进行转型,这也改变了企业对员工的看法。
世界经济论坛未来工作、薪资和经济增长主管蒂尔·利奥波德(Till Leopold)在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“很多公司确实对劳动力短缺感到忧虑,它们愈发优先考虑对现有员工进行再培训,并将其转岗至企业其他部门的新职位。这些公司正试图通过内部调配来填补这些空缺,而此前情况并非如此。”
然而,第二大人口结构变化则体现在发展中经济体劳动年龄人口的持续增长上。预计到2050年,这些国家中约25%的国家将为全球提供59%的劳动年龄人口。包括印度、东南亚以及撒哈拉以南非洲国家在内的发展中国家,在未来数年间还将为全球提供近三分之二的新增劳动力。
或许最耐人寻味的是,这两种趋势都将促进就业增长。据该报告称,到2030年,发展中国家劳动年龄人口的持续增长将为全球劳动力市场创造约910万个新的净就业岗位。而高收入国家人口老龄化预计将为全球劳动力市场创造380万个新的净就业岗位。
世界经济论坛未来工作、薪资和经济增长主管蒂尔·利奥波德告诉《财富》杂志:“人口结构变化是推动就业增长的第二大关键因素,对于不断增长的劳动年龄人口来说尤其如此。”
在这两类国家中,人口结构变化引发了大规模的工作岗位调整。面临人口老龄化问题的国家预计将涌现大量护理岗位,包括护理专业人员、社会工作者以及护理助理。与此同时,在发展中国家,随着劳动年龄人口持续增长,教育领域的相关岗位(如中学和高等教育教师)也将迎来增长。
利奥波德说:“教学、指导及领导能力都是与劳动年龄人口增长趋势相关的技能。当然,这也包括学校里真正的教育工作者。但我认为这也包括当前这一代劳动力向年轻一代传授知识。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
政府和商界领袖对迫在眉睫的人口危机忧心忡忡已经有一段时间了,但他们可能仅聚焦于问题的一个维度。世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)的一份新报告指出,在未来五年内,预计有两大人口结构变化将重塑全球劳动力格局。
首先当然是高收入国家面临的人口老龄化问题。报告称,随着人口老龄化,这些国家约40%的雇主将进行转型,这也改变了企业对员工的看法。
世界经济论坛未来工作、薪资和经济增长主管蒂尔·利奥波德(Till Leopold)在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示:“很多公司确实对劳动力短缺感到忧虑,它们愈发优先考虑对现有员工进行再培训,并将其转岗至企业其他部门的新职位。这些公司正试图通过内部调配来填补这些空缺,而此前情况并非如此。”
然而,第二大人口结构变化则体现在发展中经济体劳动年龄人口的持续增长上。预计到2050年,这些国家中约25%的国家将为全球提供59%的劳动年龄人口。包括印度、东南亚以及撒哈拉以南非洲国家在内的发展中国家,在未来数年间还将为全球提供近三分之二的新增劳动力。
或许最耐人寻味的是,这两种趋势都将促进就业增长。据该报告称,到2030年,发展中国家劳动年龄人口的持续增长将为全球劳动力市场创造约910万个新的净就业岗位。而高收入国家人口老龄化预计将为全球劳动力市场创造380万个新的净就业岗位。
世界经济论坛未来工作、薪资和经济增长主管蒂尔·利奥波德告诉《财富》杂志:“人口结构变化是推动就业增长的第二大关键因素,对于不断增长的劳动年龄人口来说尤其如此。”
在这两类国家中,人口结构变化引发了大规模的工作岗位调整。面临人口老龄化问题的国家预计将涌现大量护理岗位,包括护理专业人员、社会工作者以及护理助理。与此同时,在发展中国家,随着劳动年龄人口持续增长,教育领域的相关岗位(如中学和高等教育教师)也将迎来增长。
利奥波德说:“教学、指导及领导能力都是与劳动年龄人口增长趋势相关的技能。当然,这也包括学校里真正的教育工作者。但我认为这也包括当前这一代劳动力向年轻一代传授知识。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Government and business leaders have been wringing their hands about a looming demographic crisis for quite a while now, but they may only be focusing on one part of the equation. There are two major demographic shifts expected to transform the global workforce over the next five years, according to a new report from The World Economic Forum.
The first is, of course, the aging populations of high-income countries. Around 40% of employers in these countries will be transformed as their populations get older, according to the report. And that’s changing the way that companies think about their workers.
“A lot of companies that do have these concerns around the shrinking labor pool are increasingly prioritizing reskilling and transitioning current workers into new roles in other parts of the business,” Till Leopold, head of Future of Work, Wages and Economic Growth at the World Economic Forum, tells Fortune. “They’re trying to fill those gaps from within, which was not the case before.”
But the second major demographic shift is the expanding working-age population in developing economies. Around 25% of these countries are expected to provide 59% of the global working-age population by 2050. And this group, which includes India, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan African nations, will also provide nearly two-thirds of new members of the global workforce in the years to come.
Perhaps most interesting of all, both of these trends will lead to job growth. Around 9.1 million net new jobs in the global workforce will be created by the growing working age population in developing countries by 2030, according to the report. And the aging population of higher-income nations is expected to create 3.8 million net additional jobs to the global workforce.
“Demographic shifts are the second largest driver of job growth,” Till Leopold, head of Future of Work, Wages and Economic Growth at the World Economic Forum, tells Fortune. “That is particularly true for the growing working-age population.”
These demographic shifts are also creating a great jobs reshuffling for both groups of countries. Countries with an aging population are expected to see an influx of care jobs, including nursing professionals, social workers, and care aides. Meanwhile, increasing working-age populations in developing countries are fueling growth in education-related professions, such as secondary and higher education teachers.
“Teaching, mentoring, and leadership are all skills that are associated with the growing working age population trend,” says Leopold. “Of course that includes actual teachers in schools. But I think it also includes the current generation of the workforce imparting their knowledge to the younger generations.”