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办公地产困境难解:办公楼得不到贷款,市场没有流动性

ALENA BOTROS
2023-08-10

低成本融资的时代已经结束。

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商业地产的困境愈演愈烈。盖蒂图片社

里奇·戈特利布在费城商业地产公司Keystone工作了超过18年,曾担任该公司的高级副总裁,现任总裁兼首席运营官。与其他许多人一样,他也将办公楼行业的低迷归咎于向远程办公转变的普遍趋势,他认为这严重影响了需求。此外,低成本融资的时代已经结束,特点就是经济环境向更高利率和更严格的信贷条件转变。

戈特利布对《财富》杂志表示:“目前,办公楼得不到贷款……市场上缺乏流动性。”戈特利布表示,利率上涨侵蚀了大量现金流,他认为这是一个“艰难时期”。

他认为,当前办公地产低迷与之前的情况区别在于,办公楼的业主现在想要知道需求是否会有所反弹。

戈特利布表示:“现在,人们都在怀疑是否还需要办公室。我认为办公楼的需求会恢复。世事多变,一切都在不断变化,但根据我的经验,范式转变速度飞快,之后它们会恢复到更接近于最开始的状态。”

戈特利布最早承认,当前的状况对他或他所在的行业不利,因此可以说随着人们重回办公室,他和他所在的行业将从中受益。无论如何,考虑到当前的情况,如果公司有机会通过减少办公空间节约支出,它们一定会抓住机会。正如戈特利布所说,这种状况引发了所谓的“价值重置”。但戈特利布表示,房地产的价值、空置率和交易量“存在巨大差异”,占据优势的主要是所谓便利设施配套更齐全的建筑。他表示,大部分公司确实想要办公空间,只是这取决于他们想要多大空间。

在被问到戈特利布的公司是否不得不出售任何建筑甚至将地产的所有权交给贷款机构时,他不置可否,而是回答称:“我们与其他人一样都面临挑战。”但他表示,最终,公司依旧是贷款机构想要合作的对象之一。

他说道:“大环境的变化对所有人产生了影响。如果[贷款机构]希望取得房产的所有权,他们会选择与我合作——他们将房产交给其他人能得到什么回报?”他问道:“一旦他们取消抵押品赎回权,房地产就会贬值。他们并不具备运营这些商业地产的能力。而且市场上出售房地产缺乏流动性,除非市场跌至低谷。因此,我们发现,我们和贷款机构正在相互合作。”

即便如此,戈特利布表示,Keystone在再融资方面领先于同行。该公司依旧在重新评估其资产组合,并开始将其办公楼改造成多户住宅。戈特利布表示,这符合公司多年来培养的“核心竞争力”,因为公司以前就会购买郊区的旧办公楼,并投入大量资金对它们进行重新定位,而不是只进行表面维修或装饰。他表示,这些旧办公楼通常位于黄金地段,但它们需要资本注入。有时候这意味着要为办公楼安装新空调系统,或者彻底拆除幕墙和将外墙换成玻璃,以获得自然光照明。

戈特利布表示:“这是我们最初的经营策略,并演变成了当前的混合用途策略。我们从来不担心对现有建筑进行改造。而且,我们犯过许多错误,但我将其归因于经验。因此,对我们而言,将办公楼改造成住宅听起来更像是挑战,却并不会令我们感到恐惧。”

戈特利布表示,Keystone并非将办公楼完全改造成住宅,而是转变成混合用途空间。他提到了费城市区的办公楼Curtis。这栋办公楼面积接近100万平方英尺,曾经是一家出版社,已经成为当地的地标之一。戈特利布表示,办公楼内的部分空间尺寸不规则,但却适合改造成公寓。因此,他表示,该公司创建了一个单独的区域并建成了公寓,现在这里是费城房价最高的公寓之一。该措施增加了房屋供应,在全美房屋建设量不足的情况下,这些房屋满足了需求,但它并不是经济适用房源。

戈特利布表示:“目前建设经济适用住房困难重重。”之后他表示“现在所有条件都不利于这样做”。

他表示,建设成本上涨,借款成本上涨,而贷款机构愿意提供的贷款金额却在减少。他认为,归根结底,投资者希望获得回报。这意味着,建设经济适用房并不是投资者们最看重的投资项目。

戈特利布表示,在Keystone将办公楼改造成多户住宅的过程中,首先是查看地理位置,然后研究建筑一个楼层的可租赁面积。他解释称:“因此,如果我能设计一栋建筑,只损失10%或20%的空间,这远好过损失40%的办公楼可出租空间。”

但Keystone的秘密武器似乎是混合用途分区。戈特利布表示,尽管过去几年兴起了接受混合用途环境的趋势,但费城城区的区划代码适用于公寓,郊区却按用途划分。区域划分有时候可能是交易成败的决定性条件,因为区域划分可能会延误建设过程。戈特利布表示,在开始开发之前,有时候仅仅区域划分获得批准就可能需要一两年时间。

他说道:“改造办公楼并不像人们想象的那么简单。大多数建筑的改造项目并不成功。”

而且,考虑到市场上几乎没有任何流动性,你可能认为,这类改造项目甚至难以获得贷款。戈特利布表示:“当前世事艰难。我认为如果我们现在才有所行动,那么答案就是我们的项目无法获得贷款。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

里奇·戈特利布在费城商业地产公司Keystone工作了超过18年,曾担任该公司的高级副总裁,现任总裁兼首席运营官。与其他许多人一样,他也将办公楼行业的低迷归咎于向远程办公转变的普遍趋势,他认为这严重影响了需求。此外,低成本融资的时代已经结束,特点就是经济环境向更高利率和更严格的信贷条件转变。

戈特利布对《财富》杂志表示:“目前,办公楼得不到贷款……市场上缺乏流动性。”戈特利布表示,利率上涨侵蚀了大量现金流,他认为这是一个“艰难时期”。

他认为,当前办公地产低迷与之前的情况区别在于,办公楼的业主现在想要知道需求是否会有所反弹。

戈特利布表示:“现在,人们都在怀疑是否还需要办公室。我认为办公楼的需求会恢复。世事多变,一切都在不断变化,但根据我的经验,范式转变速度飞快,之后它们会恢复到更接近于最开始的状态。”

戈特利布最早承认,当前的状况对他或他所在的行业不利,因此可以说随着人们重回办公室,他和他所在的行业将从中受益。无论如何,考虑到当前的情况,如果公司有机会通过减少办公空间节约支出,它们一定会抓住机会。正如戈特利布所说,这种状况引发了所谓的“价值重置”。但戈特利布表示,房地产的价值、空置率和交易量“存在巨大差异”,占据优势的主要是所谓便利设施配套更齐全的建筑。他表示,大部分公司确实想要办公空间,只是这取决于他们想要多大空间。

在被问到戈特利布的公司是否不得不出售任何建筑甚至将地产的所有权交给贷款机构时,他不置可否,而是回答称:“我们与其他人一样都面临挑战。”但他表示,最终,公司依旧是贷款机构想要合作的对象之一。

他说道:“大环境的变化对所有人产生了影响。如果[贷款机构]希望取得房产的所有权,他们会选择与我合作——他们将房产交给其他人能得到什么回报?”他问道:“一旦他们取消抵押品赎回权,房地产就会贬值。他们并不具备运营这些商业地产的能力。而且市场上出售房地产缺乏流动性,除非市场跌至低谷。因此,我们发现,我们和贷款机构正在相互合作。”

即便如此,戈特利布表示,Keystone在再融资方面领先于同行。该公司依旧在重新评估其资产组合,并开始将其办公楼改造成多户住宅。戈特利布表示,这符合公司多年来培养的“核心竞争力”,因为公司以前就会购买郊区的旧办公楼,并投入大量资金对它们进行重新定位,而不是只进行表面维修或装饰。他表示,这些旧办公楼通常位于黄金地段,但它们需要资本注入。有时候这意味着要为办公楼安装新空调系统,或者彻底拆除幕墙和将外墙换成玻璃,以获得自然光照明。

戈特利布表示:“这是我们最初的经营策略,并演变成了当前的混合用途策略。我们从来不担心对现有建筑进行改造。而且,我们犯过许多错误,但我将其归因于经验。因此,对我们而言,将办公楼改造成住宅听起来更像是挑战,却并不会令我们感到恐惧。”

戈特利布表示,Keystone并非将办公楼完全改造成住宅,而是转变成混合用途空间。他提到了费城市区的办公楼Curtis。这栋办公楼面积接近100万平方英尺,曾经是一家出版社,已经成为当地的地标之一。戈特利布表示,办公楼内的部分空间尺寸不规则,但却适合改造成公寓。因此,他表示,该公司创建了一个单独的区域并建成了公寓,现在这里是费城房价最高的公寓之一。该措施增加了房屋供应,在全美房屋建设量不足的情况下,这些房屋满足了需求,但它并不是经济适用房源。

戈特利布表示:“目前建设经济适用住房困难重重。”之后他表示“现在所有条件都不利于这样做”。

他表示,建设成本上涨,借款成本上涨,而贷款机构愿意提供的贷款金额却在减少。他认为,归根结底,投资者希望获得回报。这意味着,建设经济适用房并不是投资者们最看重的投资项目。

戈特利布表示,在Keystone将办公楼改造成多户住宅的过程中,首先是查看地理位置,然后研究建筑一个楼层的可租赁面积。他解释称:“因此,如果我能设计一栋建筑,只损失10%或20%的空间,这远好过损失40%的办公楼可出租空间。”

但Keystone的秘密武器似乎是混合用途分区。戈特利布表示,尽管过去几年兴起了接受混合用途环境的趋势,但费城城区的区划代码适用于公寓,郊区却按用途划分。区域划分有时候可能是交易成败的决定性条件,因为区域划分可能会延误建设过程。戈特利布表示,在开始开发之前,有时候仅仅区域划分获得批准就可能需要一两年时间。

他说道:“改造办公楼并不像人们想象的那么简单。大多数建筑的改造项目并不成功。”

而且,考虑到市场上几乎没有任何流动性,你可能认为,这类改造项目甚至难以获得贷款。戈特利布表示:“当前世事艰难。我认为如果我们现在才有所行动,那么答案就是我们的项目无法获得贷款。”(财富中文网)

翻译:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Rich Gottlieb has been with Keystone, a Philadelphia-based commercial real estate firm, for more than 18 years, and now he’s the company’s president and chief operating officer after a stint as senior vice president. Like countless others, he attributes the distress within the office sector to the widespread shift toward remote work, which has significantly impacted demand. Additionally, the era of inexpensive financing has come to an end, marked by the transition to an economic environment characterized by higher interest rates and stricter credit conditions.

“For an office building, you can’t get a loan today…there’s no liquidity in the marketplace,” Gottlieb told Fortune. And with interest rates being higher, it’s eating away at a lot of the cash flow, Gottlieb said, calling it a “very trying time.”

In his view, the difference with this office real estate downturn as compared to previous downturns is that office owners are wondering if demand will ever return.

“This time, people are questioning whether they’re going to need that space at all,” Gottlieb said. “I believe they will be back. Things always evolve, things always change, but my experience has been that paradigm shifts move really quickly and then they come back closer to where it started.”

Gottlieb was the first to admit that what’s going on isn’t good for him or his industry, so it’s safe to say that he and his industry would benefit from people returning to the office. Either way, given where we’re at, if companies have the opportunity to save money by cutting back on office space, they’ll take it. It’s all triggering a “reset in value,” as Gottlieb put it. But Gottlieb said that property values, vacancy rates, and transactions are “all over the board,” with the so-called better buildings with better amenities mostly coming out on top. And for the most part, he said, companies do want office space, it just depends on how much space they want.

“We have challenges, like everybody else,” Gottlieb responded, after being asked if the firm has had to sell any of its buildings, or even turn in the keys , without giving a yes or no answer. But he did say that at the end of the day, the firm is one that lenders want to work with.

“The world changed on all of us,” he said. “If [the lenders] want to take the keys back, they take it from me—what are they getting by giving it to the next guy?” he asked, adding, “Once they foreclose, it’s worth even less. They don’t really have the capabilities typically to operate. And there’s no liquidity in the market to sell, unless it’s rock, rock, rock bottom. So we’re finding that lenders are working with us and we’re working with them.”

Even so, Gottlieb said, Keystone was ahead of the game in refinancing. Still, in reevaluating its portfolio, the firm has entered into the world of office-to-multifamily conversions. Gottlieb said it plays to their “core competency” over the years, considering that the company used to buy older, suburban offices and put a lot of money into them, not just a Band-Aid or some makeup, as he put it, to reposition them. Those older office buildings were typically in the best locations, but they needed capital, he said. Sometimes that meant putting new air conditioning systems in, or completely removing the facade and replacing that exterior with glass for natural light.

“That’s where we started, and we morphed into this mixed use,” Gottlieb said. “We were never afraid to work within an existing building. And, you know, we’ve made plenty of mistakes along the way, but I chalked it up to experience. So converting a building from office to residential sounds more like a challenge than something to be scared of to us.”

Instead of a complete conversion, Gottlieb said, Keystone has made office buildings into mixed-used spaces. He gave the example of the Curtis building in downtown Philadelphia, which was just under a million square feet and has become a sort of landmark in the city as a former publishing house. Gottlieb said part of the office had unusual sizing, but it was the perfect depth for apartments. So the company created a separate area and built apartments—which are now some of the highest-priced in Philadelphia, he said. That creates more supply, which is needed because the nation’s housing market is underbuilt, but it’s not affordable housing.

“It’s hard to do affordable housing anywhere, anytime right now,” Gottlieb said, adding later that “every lever is kind of working against you.”

The price of construction is up, the cost of borrowing is up, and the amount of money lenders are willing to lend is down, he said. And at the end of the day, in his view, investors want a return. That’s all to say that affordable housing doesn’t seem to be the number one thing on investors’ minds.

In Keystone’s own office-to-multifamily conversion process, Gottlieb said they start by looking at location, then they look at floor plates, which just refers to the leasable space on an entire floor of a building. “So if I have a building that I can design, and I’m only losing 10% or 20% of the space, that’s way better than a building that I’m losing 40% of the office rentable area,” he explained.

But what seems to be Keystone’s secret weapon, if you will, is mixed-use zoning. Downtown Philadelphia’s zoning code works for apartments, Gottlieb said, but the suburbs are sort of separated by uses—although there has been a push over the last several years to accept a mixed-use environment. Zoning can sometimes be a deal breaker, taking into account how much it can slow down the building process. Gottlieb said it can take one to two years sometimes just to get zoning approval before you even start development.

“It’s not the slam dunk that everybody thinks it is,” he said. “It’s not that easy. Most buildings don’t work.”

Still, seeing that there’s hardly any liquidity in the market, you’d think that even securing a loan for these conversions would be difficult. “Everything’s a struggle today,” Gottlieb said. “And I think if we were just starting out, the answer would be we couldn’t get a loan for it.”

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